Is Agile actually cheaper? I ran the numbers.

Agile Octopus is the tariff that gets energy nerds excited. Half-hourly pricing linked to wholesale costs. Cheap electricity at 2am. Occasionally negative rates where Octopus literally pays you to use power. It sounds brilliant. The question that matters, though: does it actually save you money compared to just being on the standard flat rate?

The honest answer is: it depends. It depends on when you use electricity, how much effort you're willing to put in, and what year we're talking about. I've looked at the data to give you a proper answer rather than the vague "it could save you money!" that most sites offer.

How Agile pricing works

Quick recap for anyone who hasn't read the Agile tariff guide. Every day at 4pm, Octopus publishes the next day's electricity prices for each half-hour slot. These prices follow the wholesale electricity market. When there's lots of wind and low demand (typically overnight), prices are low. When everyone gets home from work and turns on the oven (typically 4-7pm), prices are high.

There's a cap of 100p/kWh to protect against extreme wholesale spikes. In practice, rates very rarely go above 40p. The lowest rates tend to be between midnight and 5am, often in single figures, sometimes negative.

The average rate vs the flat rate

This is the first thing to look at. Over the course of a year, what's the average Agile rate across all 48 daily half-hour slots, and how does it compare to Flexible's flat rate?

Looking at the past 12 months of Agile data for a typical southern England region:

So the straight average across all hours is about 2.7p cheaper than Flexible. That's meaningful. On typical household usage of 2,900 kWh per year, that's roughly a £78 saving. Not life-changing, but not nothing either.

Here's the catch: that average assumes you use the same amount of electricity at 3am as you do at 5pm. Nobody does that.

When you use electricity matters more than the average

The typical UK household uses most of its electricity between 7am and 10pm. Mornings (showers, breakfast, getting ready) and evenings (cooking, TV, heating) are the peaks. Very little gets used overnight.

This is a problem for Agile, because your heaviest usage overlaps with the most expensive rates. The cheap overnight prices that pull the average down are largely wasted if you're asleep and not using any power.

For a household that does nothing to shift their usage (just lives normally and uses electricity when they need it), the effective average rate on Agile is closer to 23-24p/kWh rather than the headline 21.8p. That narrows the gap with Flexible to about £30-50 a year.

Still a saving. A small one.

Where Agile really pays off

Agile becomes significantly cheaper if you can shift a decent chunk of your usage to off-peak hours. The people who save the most tend to have one or more of these:

• A home battery. Buy cheap electricity overnight, store it, use it during the day. This is the ultimate Agile strategy. Some people with batteries and solar panels report electricity costs close to zero.
• Timer-controlled appliances. Running the dishwasher, washing machine and tumble dryer overnight instead of during the day. Each load shifted from a 30p slot to a 7p slot saves about 30-40p.
• An EV on a timer. Though if you have an EV, Intelligent Go's guaranteed 7.5p rate is usually a better bet than gambling on Agile's overnight prices.
• Hot water on a timer. If you have an immersion heater, heating your water at 3am instead of 6pm is a significant saving.

A household that actively shifts 30-40% of their usage to off-peak hours can realistically save £150-250 a year compared to Flexible. That's where Agile starts to look properly attractive.

The risks

Agile isn't a guaranteed win. There are genuine downsides to consider:

• Peak rates can sting. If you cook dinner at 5:30pm (most people do), you're paying 30p+ per kWh. An electric oven running for an hour at those rates costs about 60p just for that one appliance. On Flexible, the same hour costs about 49p.
• Winter is more expensive. Wholesale electricity costs more when it's cold and dark. Agile's average rate in January is typically 3-4p higher than in July. Flexible's rate stays the same year-round (within each Ofgem cap period).
• It takes effort. To really benefit from Agile, you need to check tomorrow's rates and plan accordingly. There are apps and automations that can help, but it's still more work than a flat rate. Some people enjoy this kind of optimisation. Most don't.

Who should choose Agile?

You'll probably save money on Agile if:

• You have a home battery (this is the biggest factor)
• You can shift at least 25-30% of your usage to overnight hours
• You don't mind checking rates and adjusting your routine occasionally
• You're at home during the day when mid-day rates are often reasonable

You should probably stick with Flexible if:

• You use most of your electricity during peak hours (4-7pm)
• You want predictable bills with no surprises
• You have no interest in checking daily rates or timing your appliances
• Your household usage is hard to shift (e.g. working from home with high daytime demand)

My take

Agile is a genuinely innovative tariff and it can save real money. It is not, however, the automatic winner that some people make it out to be. If you just sign up and use electricity normally, your savings will be modest. Possibly £30-50 a year. Worth having, but not transformative.

If you're willing to put in some effort, or if you have a battery or high overnight usage, the savings get much more interesting. £150-250 a year is realistic for households that actively optimise.

For most people who just want a good deal without thinking about it, Flexible is the sensible choice. It's consistently cheaper than the big six suppliers and you never have to worry about what time you boil the kettle.

The tariff comparison tool can show you live rates for each tariff in your area. Worth a look before you decide.